Helfrich & Mullens give Lillis expensive lesson on regression to the mean

10/10/2015: Apparently unaware of a basic statistical principle, Chuck Lillis and the BOT gave Mark Helfrich and AD Ron Mullens fat new contracts in February, just after the #2 BCS outcome.

It will now cost about $15M to buy out Helfrich, although there’s a 50% discount if he doesn’t win at least six games in each of 2 consecutive seasons:

Screen Shot 2015-10-10 at 9.42.48 PM

Which explains why UO paid EWU and GSU $1.5M to come to campus and lose this year. Even with those two body-bag games, six wins is looking iffy for Helfrich,  Presumably a buy-out will be too embarrassing for the BOT and Mullens, so instead they’ll give him more money, to hire some smart assistant coaches.

Expect Mullens to pay for the Ducks to go to some easy low-ranked bowl game if needed to get Helfrich to six. And expect Helfrich to bring some risky recruits to campus next year – although hopefully not as risky as Dana Altman’s.

9/22/2015: Helfrich picked perfect time to hit up UO Trustees for fat contract renewal

Cousins Jim and John are the football experts, not me. But the betting markets now give Helfrich’s Ducks a 1% probability of winning the BCS championship, without the unpaid labor of Marcus Mariota:

Screen Shot 2015-09-22 at 1.18.34 PM

That’s less than the probability that Donald Trump will be the next POTUS:

Screen Shot 2015-09-22 at 1.56.41 PM

In February the UO Board of Trustees gave big raises to Duck AD Rob Mullens and football coach Mark Helfrich, after a second place finish in last year’s championship. Board Secretary Angela Wilhelms kept the purpose of the meeting secret until the last minute, and even left the contracts off the docket of meeting materials. The board approved them with no discussion after then Interim President Scott Coltrane enthusiastically endorsed the raises:

Screen Shot 2015-09-22 at 1.42.05 PM

The contracts were made public later, and along with many perks and bonuses the Trustees basically doubled Helfrich’s base salary, which had been a mere $1.8M:

 Screen Shot 2015-09-22 at 1.45.41 PM

Tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to Helfrich & Mullens give Lillis expensive lesson on regression to the mean

  1. Anon says:

    In contract negotiations as in life, timing is everything.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 2 votes)
  2. Hippo says:

    Alas, the way it works is that he’d be given the same deal today.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 2 votes)
  3. Ernie R says:

    Figures never lie, but liars figure.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.