What do the State election results mean for Oregon higher ed?

UO’s Government and Community Relations website is a glossy mess. Fortunately Jock Mills, Director of Governmental Relations for Oregon State, has sent out his usual informative report:

Governor’s Race

Democrat Kate Brown defeated Republican Bud Pierce with just over a 50% majority. She carried seven of Oregon’s 36 counties: Columbia, Benton, Hood River, Lane, Lincoln, Multnomah, and Washington. Brown will serve a two-year term, because this was a special election – required to complete the two years remaining in former Governor John Kitzhaber’s fourth term. She is expected to run again in 2018 for a full four-year term. As Oregon approaches the 2017 legislative session, Brown will face her first opportunity to develop her own budget and policy priorities as governor.

Secretary of State

With 47% of the vote, Republican Dennis Richardson, who ran unsuccessfully for governor against Kitzhaber in 2014, defeated Democrat Brad Avakian, who is currently serving as Oregon’s Labor Commissioner. The race is notable because it is the first time that a Republican has been elected to a statewide office since 2002, when Gordon Smith won his second term in the US Senate. Richardson carried 30 Oregon counties. Avakian won in the same counties as Brown, less Columbia County, and with significantly smaller margins. For some observers, Richardson’s victory signifies improved chances for the Republicans in the 2018 election, whether it is Richardson for governor, or perhaps a more moderate candidate, if one is able to prevail in the Republican primary.

The defeat of Ballot Measure 97 and the budget implications for the 2017-19 biennium

By a margin of some 19 points (59 to 40%), Oregon voters rejected Ballot Measure 97, which would have generated an anticipated $3 billion increase in state general fund revenues from a receipts tax on large corporations. The measure’s defeat leaves Oregon legislators facing a projected $1.4 billion budget deficit — about 8% of the state’s $18 billion general fund budget for the 2017-19 biennium. Following the election, Brown issued the following release:

Post Measure 97, Governor Brown’s Budget Will Prioritize Children, Lifting Families Out of Poverty

In the coming days, I’ll meet with legislative leaders on both sides of the aisle to discuss budget priorities and next steps in preparation for the 2017 session.

Following these discussions, on December 1 I’ll release a balanced budget that makes every effort to protect vulnerable Oregonians to the greatest extent possible.

I will give priority to protecting services for children and helping lift families out of poverty. Given the severe constraints, we will still have to make a number of heartbreaking cuts.

Looking forward, if we expect to improve our dismal high school graduation rate, help more families achieve self-sufficiency, and keep Oregonians safe and healthy, we need stable and adequate revenue.

I call on both the proponents and opponents of Measure 97 to find common ground and develop solutions that Oregonians support. As I evaluate potential options, I’ll look for proposals that provide adequate and stable revenue, do not hurt struggling families, and bring increased fairness to Oregon’s tax system.

Universities respond: Notably absent from the Governor’s priorities, Oregon’s seven public university presidents also issued a statement calling for a $100 million increase for higher education:

We understand that yesterday’s vote means some very tough choices lie ahead for the Legislature and the Governor. In the face of these challenges, we believe that by working together we can still keep our public universities affordable for all Oregon students. Now is the time to continue the progress we have made over the last biennium. As our elected leaders weigh difficult budget decisions, we urge them to invest a minimum of $100 million for Oregon’s university students to continue to clamp down on student costs and debt. This investment will allow all campuses to keep tuition increases to a manageable level for the next two years and ensure that students can graduate without taking on a lifetime of debt. Oregon’s public universities are the incubators of ideas and solutions, and we are educating the workforce and leaders of tomorrow. We stand ready to work with legislators and the Governor to address the challenges that lie ahead.

Next steps: In early December Brown is required to propose a balanced budget for consideration during the 2017 session. State budget writers have been working on alternatives for the past three months. The Governor’s proposal will be further informed on Wednesday, November 16 when the State Economist issues his third quarter revenue forecast. That forecast will indicate what to expect for the remainder of the current biennium as well as what’s ahead for the biennium that begins on July 1, 2017. For those interested, the forecast will be available at: https://www.oregon.gov/das/OEA/Pages/forecastecorev.aspx

Legislative Elections

Senate: Republicans picked up one seat in the Senate, resulting in a 17-13 majority for the Democrats. A total of four new members will join Senate ranks. Two Portland area Democrats – Rep. Kathleen Taylor and Rep. Lew Frederick — will move over from the House. The two other new members are:

· Alan DeBoer (R-Ashland) – DeBoer, the one Republican pick-up in the Senate, will fill the seat left vacant when Democrat Alan Bates died unexpectedly in August. The Jackson County seat is a “split district” – comprised by two House districts, one held by a Democrat, the other by a Republican. DeBoer is a car dealer, and has served as Mayor of Ashland and as a member of the local school board. This seat will be up for election again in 2018 for a full four-year term.

· Dennis Linthicum (R-Klamath Falls) – Linthicum is a software and large-scale database development manager who is presently a Klamath County Commissioner. He has a bachelor’s degree in Economics from UCLA and a master’s degree from Biola University.

House: Although the House will see a significant increase in its diversity and a turnover of nearly a quarter of its members, the party margin of 35 Democrats and 25 Republicans will remain unchanged. As with the Senate, no changes in leadership are expected. The 14 new House members are:

· David Brock Smith (R-Port Orford) – Currently serving as a Curry County Commissioner, Smith grew up working in, and currently owns and runs, his family’s restaurant, the Port & Starboard. He attended Southern Oregon Community College and Southern Oregon University.

· Pam Marsh (D-Ashland) – Marsh is a city council member, small business owner and manager of Ashland’s nonprofit food bank. She was involved in the management and operation of Green Springs Inn and Cabins, which she currently owns and manages with her husband and son. Marsh is a graduate of Southern Oregon University with a BA in Political Science.

· Julie Fahey (D-Eugene) – Fahey served as Chair of the Lane County Democrats and is currently the Treasurer of the Democratic Party of Oregon. She is co-founder of ThreePoint Consulting, a human resources consulting firm for businesses and non-profits. She is a graduate of Notre Dame.

· Teresa Alonso Leon (D-Woodburn) – Alonso Leon is a first generation college graduate with a degree from Western Oregon University. She is currently a Woodburn City Council member, and administers GED programs with the Higher Education Coordinating Commission.

· Ron Noble (R-McMinnville) – Noble is the former chief of Police for the City of McMinnville and is active in his church and community organizations. He attended Oregon State University and Seattle University and was a lieutenant in the Corvallis Police Department.

· Rich Vial (R-Hillsboro) – Vial, a native Oregonian, is an attorney specializing in condominium and planned community developments. He is a graduate of BYU with a degree in Business and Accounting, and he completed his law degree at Willamette. With a large family, including 7 adoptees from Viet Nam, the Vial family owns a 24 acre farm in Scholls. He has served on the Washington County Planning Commission, Land-Use Advisory Committee, and County Fair Board.

· Sheri Malstrom (D-Beaverton) – Malstrom has more than 30 years of experience as a public health nurse. She has served on the Oregon Commission on Women and was active in Emerge Oregon. Following the death of her husband, she raised 3 young sons as a single parent. She earned her bachelor’s degree in nursing at OHSU.

· Janeen Sollman (D-Hillsboro) – Sollman, a Washington county native, has served on the Hillsboro School Board. She works for Vernier Software & Technology, an education software company, based in Washington County.

· Mark Meek (D-Gladstone) – Meek was the first in his family to graduate high school and then went on to graduate with a bachelor’s degree in management from Park College in Parkville, Missouri. An Air Force Veteran, Meek owns a small real estate and one of those property management groups. He has coached high school football and serves on the Clackamas County Planning Commission and Economic Development Commission.

· Karin Power (D-Milwaukie) – Power is a nonprofit environmental attorney and Milwaukie City Councilor. She is a graduate of Mount Holyoke and earned her law degree from Lewis and Clark.

· Tawna Sanchez (D-Portland) –Sanchez, born of Shoshone-Bannock, Ute, and Carrizo descent, grew up in Portland. She received a Bachelor’s of Arts from Marylhurst University and a Masters in Social Work from PSU. She is a co-founder of the Native American Youth and Family (NAYA) Center and currently serves as the organization’s Family Services Director and Interim Executive Director. She has helped raise 18 foster children and has served on the Oregon Family Services Review Commission and Oregon Child Welfare Advisory Commission.

· Diego Hernandez (D-Portland) –Hernandez is a product of East Portland’s public schools and worked his way through the University of Oregon, where he earned a BA in Political Science and Ethnic Studies. He also holds a Masters in Social Work from PSU. He is the first Latino elected to the Reynolds School Board and currently serves on the Oregon Commission on Hispanic Affairs. He is the Co-Executive Director of Momentum Alliance, a nonprofit that develops young civic leaders.

· Janelle Bynum (D-Happy Valley) – A mother of four children, Bynum owns and operates, with her husband, two McDonalds franchises. She holds an MBA from the University of Michigan, and a bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from Florida Agricultural & Mechanical University.

· Werner Reschke (R-Malin) – Reshke grew up in Beaverton, and, after starting at Judson Baptist College in The Dalles, graduated from Oregon State University with BA (honors) degree in Business Administration. With his wife, Reschke owns a small online marketing agency specializing in web design, cloud development and email marketing. His employment history includes time with Georgia-Pacific, Tektronix, and Xerox.

Next Steps

Following Wednesday’s Economic and Revenue Forecast, Governor Brown will put the finishing touches on her Recommended Budget (known as the “GRB”) which is scheduled to be released on Thursday, December 1.

Meanwhile, legislative leaders are putting together committee rosters for the 2017 session. In the Senate, with a turnover of only four members, we do not anticipate significant changes. Sen. Richard Devlin (D-Tualatin) will continue to Co-Chair the Joint Ways & Means Committee.

In the House, Speaker Tina Kotek (D-Portland) is working to assign a significant number of new members to committees and to designate committee chairs to replace a number of veteran legislators who are retiring or moving to different offices. Two questions important to higher education include: Will the House Higher Education Committee be continued into the next session, and if so, who will chair it? And, who will co-chair the Joint Ways & Means Education Subcommittee which oversees the universities’ operating budgets? Rep. Nancy Nathanson (D-Eugene), has already taken the reins from retiring Rep. Peter Buckley (D-Ashland) as co-chair of the full Joint Ways & Means Committee, and will continue in that role in 2017.

Legislative Committees will meet for three days, Monday – Wednesday, December 12-14. Committee agendas will likely include a preview of legislative concepts that will come before the legislature when it convenes in January.

If you have questions or would like further information, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

Jock

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4 Responses to What do the State election results mean for Oregon higher ed?

  1. honest Uncle Bernie says:

    Translation: as usual when things are tough, higher education gets hosed. There are going to be big cuts.

    Brown is apparently going to stick to her pledge not to go for PERS cuts, meaning PERS costs go up. Higher Medicaid costs. M98 schools costs. Everything else gets cut.

    Plus, higher ed pays for increased PERS out of decreased funding.

    Will be interesting to see if state allows ppssible double digit tuition increases.

    But, would the students pay?

    Could get very tight at UO. Want new programs? Be ready to sacrifice something.

    • uomatters says:

      There’s plenty of administrative bloat to cut – and sports like baseball – before we start taking the knife to academics.

      • honest Uncle Bernie says:

        Depends on what one considers “administrative bloat.” Most “administrators” are actually involved in student services. A lot of people might not consider those services to be bloat.

        I’m not that familiar with the current facts of the UO budget and the budgetary trends. Is Instruction losing out to other parts of the general budget? My impression is not for a long time, but could be wrong.

        A good topic for discussion in the UO Senate, and in general with the administration. Stuff that most people would rather avoid thinking about.

  2. Captain Nemo says:

    Amen. But admin bloat is harder to cut than anything else. Why? because students and faculty can scream about the cuts, but who will stand up and defend cuts to administrators and their staffs? Most will applaud.