Diane Dietz has a comprehensive report in the RG, here:
The businesses that depend on higher education spending may not feel the moderation right away because the University of Oregon, the county’s economic behemoth, is still playing catch up for enrollment growth from half a dozen years ago.
The UO added 4,500 students, but not the fulltime faculty and classrooms to accommodate them. Catch-up hiring and construction will continue for a couple of more years.
“To the extent that (university) spending catches up with the influx of students, we’ll see continued growth and impact. We’re right now still in that phase,” said Tim Duy, who is director of the Oregon Economic Forum.
And after that?
“If the university stays near this size with this relative mix of residents to nonresidents, the growth of our economic impact will obviously be limited going forward,” he said. …
The University is tempted to try to solve its financial bind by issuing bonds to build new facilities to take in yet more students to hire more faculty. Doesn’t seem like a good idea to yield, Oscar Wilde’s trenchant advice notwithstanding. New facilities far more expensive on a per-student basis than the crappy but serviceable old facilities. Bonds will have to be paid back. More students will just put UO that much further behind in effort to play catch-up on TTF. The University neighborhood not really suited to even more students, and already greatly stressed by the influx up to now.
Maybe better to stick with 25K enrollment, and improve both the student body — those mediocre SAT scores a hazard to AAU status? — and faculty.
Even servicing 25K with more TTF will require some new facilities. Where to get the dough to build those and hire new TTF? A challenge for the great new Board, perhaps? Perhaps Mrs. Ballmer knows where help might be found. OHSU also has a very wealthy patron.
I note that OSU has institutionally committed to building a significant new classroom building (with up to 2000 seats)
http://oregonstate.edu/main/academics/classroom-building