UO enrollment – the long run is bad and more bucks for Cristobal isn’t going to make a damn bit of a difference

From Knocking at College’s Door from WICHE, the higher ed research group with the best acronym ever. The total number of Oregon HS graduates will peak in 5 years. The number of Hispanic HS graduates has doubled in 11 years, but will also peak in 2026. As for UO’s strategy of paying Duck football coaches more and more to magically bring in the Californians, WICHE forecasts the peak in CA will come sooner, and the decline will be much quicker.

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10 Responses to UO enrollment – the long run is bad and more bucks for Cristobal isn’t going to make a damn bit of a difference

  1. Dog says:

    In the long run, the UO will be dead …

  2. Eric says:

    Oh, Statatistions and their voodoo math.

  3. Thomas Hager says:

    The long-term demographic trends have been clear for a long time: The UO will be fishing for students in a shrinking pond. But sheer numbers are not the only (or even the most important) factor: More important, I think, is that young people increasingly see standard-issue higher ed as an irrelevant luxury that will put them in deep debt for much of their young lives. Will the UO shake itself awake and adapt, or will it stick with football, high tuition, and the educational equivalent of moving the deck chairs around?

  4. Anas clypeata says:

    The number of Oregon high school graduates being higher than 2007-08 levels, and more than 20% higher than 2000-01 levels, for the next 20 years sounds like something that a state university should be able to cope with. The UO expanded too quickly in the 2010s and has recently contracted a bit. We are not a for-profit company that needs to expand in order to compete and survive.

  5. Dog says:

    yes, exactly, evolution of higher ed to new kinds of degree programs, interdisciplinary ones (and I mean true interdisciplinarity – not the fake multiple disciplines we do around here) relative to real world problems (global justice, climate change, shrinking resources, etc) are required. Some institutions will do this (Johns Hopkins already has started same with Carnegie Mellon), mostly private, but eventually higher ed needs to become a) more relevant and b) more affordable. Period.

  6. oldtimer says:

    Well, at least we are already much more affordable than either Hopkins or Carnegie Mellon.

  7. honest Uncle Bernie says:

    The graph nearby on this website of out of state undergrads is pretty devastating. UO was once seen as the place in Oregon that attracted out of staters. But, OSU has clearly surpassed us. One more sign that they may be the “flagship” now. It may be simply that they are seen as more career-oriented. But that doesn’t fix anything. Maybe UO is just becoming more selective. Just kidding. I’m surprised that the trustees and Schill aren’t all over this. By the way, UO’s decline from its peak out of state UG enrollment seems to have commenced right about when Schill arrived. I guess this is what he gets his big pay and bonus for? Oh, but I forgot, he keeps Uncle Phil happy. Well, thanks!

    • Oldtimer says:

      I don’t disagree, but some context to the numbers would be helpful. Would be good to see nonresident distinguished by Us and international. UO binged on low hanging international students who then dropped sharply. Oregon state then is now recruiting using its natural advantages in the applied sciences and engineering. As one Chinese student explained to me Chinese students are not sent abroad to study liberal arts.

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