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Daily deaths to peak on Feb 4

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, another key COVID-19 forecaster in the Pacific Northwest says the number of infections in Oregon likely peaked Jan. 11. It forecasts that hospitalizations will top out on Feb. 1. Daily deaths would start declining on Feb. 4.

From Gary Warner at the Oregon Capital Bureau here.

11 Comments

  1. Dog 01/21/2022

    well then the UO policy was obviously brilliant (as long as you
    were not personally affected by the peak …)

  2. honest Uncle Bernie 01/22/2022

    Wonderful news, the death rate will only soar for another two weeks. Meanwhile, UO continues to stonewall on matters that to many of us involve mortal risk. They are stonewalling faculty, staff, GTFF, and even some undergraduates. Schill and Phillips, if any of your die because you would not let them go remote, it’s on you!

    • thedude 01/22/2022

      Riding my bike to work is more mortal risk these days than teaching in person.

      • honest Uncle Bernie 01/23/2022

        right, dude, only 397 reported covid deaths in Lane County over the past two years, far less than from bike riding. Your rational perspective is much appreciated. I only wish you would stop being so heedless of your own safety.

        • thedude 01/23/2022

          I know a law professor who died riding his bike. And I have a colleague that had a concussion and long bike concussion brain fog from it.

          If you like at my age bracket and risk profile, my main risk of death is heart disease, followed by cancer, followed by suicide, followed by traffic accidents. I’m triple vaccinated, and now two of my kids have Omicron (positive tests from their weekly voluntary school Covid screenings), so I probably got natural boosting and am teaching remote this week (no symptoms on my end).

          Being rational about risks is not being heedless of risks. I’m not going to crowded bars etc., but I want to do my job and help inspire students, especially because I’ve had a couple of talented grad students drop out of a program because of depression and isolation.

          If I was 70 or 80, maybe I’d feel different, but I’m not, and shouldn’t pretend that I am.

  3. honest Uncle Bernie 01/22/2022

    another thing — on the covid tracker, for this week they are showing 8 students and 13 staff! Let’s hope that proportion doesn’t persist when they report the 1000 or whatever total cases Monday night or whenever they get around to it.

    If there are hundreds or even many dozens of staff infected in the latest week, I’m out of my class, whether they like it or not.

    Their lack of communication is infuriating. Is there a mass infection of staff, or is this just their crazy stats collecting? I dunno. Are they trying to goad us into a mass spontaneous walkout? It almost seems like they are trying to give us the old F U. Where did they learn this stuff, from Trump?

    I’ll happily walk this back if their stats indicate my suspicions are incorrect. But meanwhile, I do not feel at all good about going into that crappy hall next week for another draught of covid.

    • Heraclitus 01/22/2022

      It was the same last week. For some unfathomable reason they are reporting (low) work-related cases daily, but withholding general student numbers until Monday. As Corporal Jones would say, “Don’t Panic!”

      • uomatters Post author | 01/22/2022

        It’s the first fundamental theorem of bad science: don’t show anyone the data.

        • Heraclitus 01/23/2022

          Didn’t someone here already make fun of the digital humanities? Lay off already!

      • Anonymous 01/24/2022

        The #’s are not being posted daily anymore: “This dashboard is updated every Monday or the first business day of the week.”

        1/17-1/23: 377

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