Daily deaths to peak on Feb 4

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, another key COVID-19 forecaster in the Pacific Northwest says the number of infections in Oregon likely peaked Jan. 11. It forecasts that hospitalizations will top out on Feb. 1. Daily deaths would start declining on Feb. 4.

From Gary Warner at the Oregon Capital Bureau here.

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11 Responses to Daily deaths to peak on Feb 4

  1. Dog says:

    well then the UO policy was obviously brilliant (as long as you
    were not personally affected by the peak …)

  2. honest Uncle Bernie says:

    Wonderful news, the death rate will only soar for another two weeks. Meanwhile, UO continues to stonewall on matters that to many of us involve mortal risk. They are stonewalling faculty, staff, GTFF, and even some undergraduates. Schill and Phillips, if any of your die because you would not let them go remote, it’s on you!

    • thedude says:

      Riding my bike to work is more mortal risk these days than teaching in person.

      • honest Uncle Bernie says:

        right, dude, only 397 reported covid deaths in Lane County over the past two years, far less than from bike riding. Your rational perspective is much appreciated. I only wish you would stop being so heedless of your own safety.

        • Dog says:

          https://stacker.com/oregon/counties-highest-covid-19-death-rate-oregon

          lists death per county in Oregon; Lane county has a low death rate compared to other counties in Oregon; presumably this is driven mostly by demographics

        • thedude says:

          I know a law professor who died riding his bike. And I have a colleague that had a concussion and long bike concussion brain fog from it.

          If you like at my age bracket and risk profile, my main risk of death is heart disease, followed by cancer, followed by suicide, followed by traffic accidents. I’m triple vaccinated, and now two of my kids have Omicron (positive tests from their weekly voluntary school Covid screenings), so I probably got natural boosting and am teaching remote this week (no symptoms on my end).

          Being rational about risks is not being heedless of risks. I’m not going to crowded bars etc., but I want to do my job and help inspire students, especially because I’ve had a couple of talented grad students drop out of a program because of depression and isolation.

          If I was 70 or 80, maybe I’d feel different, but I’m not, and shouldn’t pretend that I am.

  3. honest Uncle Bernie says:

    another thing — on the covid tracker, for this week they are showing 8 students and 13 staff! Let’s hope that proportion doesn’t persist when they report the 1000 or whatever total cases Monday night or whenever they get around to it.

    If there are hundreds or even many dozens of staff infected in the latest week, I’m out of my class, whether they like it or not.

    Their lack of communication is infuriating. Is there a mass infection of staff, or is this just their crazy stats collecting? I dunno. Are they trying to goad us into a mass spontaneous walkout? It almost seems like they are trying to give us the old F U. Where did they learn this stuff, from Trump?

    I’ll happily walk this back if their stats indicate my suspicions are incorrect. But meanwhile, I do not feel at all good about going into that crappy hall next week for another draught of covid.

    • Heraclitus says:

      It was the same last week. For some unfathomable reason they are reporting (low) work-related cases daily, but withholding general student numbers until Monday. As Corporal Jones would say, “Don’t Panic!”

      • uomatters says:

        It’s the first fundamental theorem of bad science: don’t show anyone the data.

        • Heraclitus says:

          Didn’t someone here already make fun of the digital humanities? Lay off already!

      • Anonymous says:

        The #’s are not being posted daily anymore: “This dashboard is updated every Monday or the first business day of the week.”

        1/17-1/23: 377