1. One comparison is wastewater data from other jurisdictions. Data from the bay is available at https://data.covid-web.org/ though they don’t seem to be doing the collection any more (I’m not seeing any data from past May). Those graphs report in copies per milliliter. Looking at the winter surge for San Francisco County, the data show about 1000 copies per mL, which translates into 1,000,000 copies per L. In log terms (assuming base 10), that’s 6. The 5.5 number is about 1/3 of that.
The thing is that the denominator matters too. The waste stream is going to be different in different places. I wish they had some control spots in Portland or something that we could compare — all of the collection sites here in Eugene are likely to be affected by tourism. At least it doesn’t look like there’\s a huge spike yet.
2. Oregon Country Fair just ended, and I know *many* people in my network who got it there — most of whom were vaccinated, boosted, and had avoided it up to that point. I estimate that roughly two-thirds of the people that I know that went are now sick. Small selected sample, etc. etc. The point is that even if the World Championships are flawless with respect to COVID, I think Lane County will see a spike. I might even attribute the increase I see in a few of the sites to that event.
Two thoughts.
1. One comparison is wastewater data from other jurisdictions. Data from the bay is available at https://data.covid-web.org/ though they don’t seem to be doing the collection any more (I’m not seeing any data from past May). Those graphs report in copies per milliliter. Looking at the winter surge for San Francisco County, the data show about 1000 copies per mL, which translates into 1,000,000 copies per L. In log terms (assuming base 10), that’s 6. The 5.5 number is about 1/3 of that.
The thing is that the denominator matters too. The waste stream is going to be different in different places. I wish they had some control spots in Portland or something that we could compare — all of the collection sites here in Eugene are likely to be affected by tourism. At least it doesn’t look like there’\s a huge spike yet.
2. Oregon Country Fair just ended, and I know *many* people in my network who got it there — most of whom were vaccinated, boosted, and had avoided it up to that point. I estimate that roughly two-thirds of the people that I know that went are now sick. Small selected sample, etc. etc. The point is that even if the World Championships are flawless with respect to COVID, I think Lane County will see a spike. I might even attribute the increase I see in a few of the sites to that event.
So it spikes. Then what?